Cycloon Eliakim heeft zich gevormd en zal in Madagascar aan land komen

Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" on March 15, 2018. Credit: NASA Terra/MODIS

Tropical Storm "Eliakim" formed 02:00 UTC on March 15, 2018 east of northern Madagascar as the 6th named storm of the 2017/18 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Eliakim's current forecast track takes it right over northeastern Madagascar on March 16 and 17. The first peripheral bands of Eliakim are currently reaching the northeastern Malagasy coasts. The weather conditions will continue to worsen and will become particularly dangerous Friday during its landing. 

At 06:00 UTC on March 15, the center of Moderate Tropical Storm "Eliakim" was located 657 km (408 miles) NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius,  641 km (398 miles) NNW of Saint-Denis, Reunion, 605 km (376 miles) NE of Toamasina, Madagascar and 422 km (262 miles) E of Antalaha, Madagascar.

The system had maximum 10-minute wind speed of 83 km/h (52 mph), central pressure of 990 hPa and was moving SW at 13 km/h (8 mph).


Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" at 08:00 UTC on March 15, 2018. Credit: UW-CIMSS

Over the past 24 hours, a band of strong convection wrapped around the circulation center, gradually increasing the Dvorak intensity estimations, RSMC La Reunion reported 06:00 UTC today. As a consequence, the National Meteorological Service of Madagascar proceeded to the naming of the storm at 02:00 UTC this morning.

"Eliakim remains steered by a mid-level ridge in the south-east and continues to track WSW until its landing on Madagascar Friday in the region of the Masoala Peninsula and Île Sainte-Marie.

During its passage over land, Eliakim should turn south-eastward as the ridge gradually shifts eastward and a mid-latitudes trough arrives from the south-west. Sunday, the weakened system should come back over the sea on Sunday, March 18 and continue to track generally south-eastward.

The available guidance is now in rather good agreement over this scenario, the center said.


The environment remains conducive for further intensification of the system until its landing on the Malagasy north-eastern coasts Friday or Saturday morning, thanks to a great upper divergence. However, the wide inner core structure should prevent a rapid deepening.

The system could reach the minimal tropical cyclone stage before landing but will weaken once overland. Sunday evening, as Eliakim should have just come back over the sea, the strengthening of a north-westerly shear ahead of an upper trough should strongly limit its re-intensification.

The first peripheral bands of Eliakim are currently reaching the northeastern Malagasy coasts. The weather conditions will continue to worsen and will become particularly dangerous Friday during its landing. 

Bron: https://watchers.news

17 doden door Eliakim 

17 fatalities as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" moves over Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit Madagascar's Mananara region on March 17 with wind speeds of 85 km/h (53 mph) and gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph). It then moved over the provinces of Analanjirofo and Antsinanana over the next 2 days, killing at least 17 people and leaving over 6 000 displaced. The storm dropped over 200 mm (7.8 inches) of rain in some areas within 24 hours and continued heading off the central and southeastern coast of Madagascar as a tropical storm. 

At least 17 people were killed and 15 772 affected as Tropical Cyclone "Eliakim" hit eastern Madagascar over the weekend, authorities confirmed early Monday, March 19, 2018.

1 271 homes have been damaged and 648 destroyed, leaving 6 282 displaced. National authorities also reported that the access to the affected areas may be a major constraint due to a large number of landslides and flooded roads.

At 00:00 UTC on March 19, the center of Tropical Storm "Eliakim" was located 130 km (81 miles) SE of Manakara, Vatovavy-Fitovinany and was moving S at 18 km/h (11.5 mph) with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h (51 mph). 

Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to keep heading southeast away from land, while strengthening. Heavy rain and strong winds may still affect northern, central and southern Madagascar and La Reunion on March 19 and 20.

Meteo Madagascar has published a red alert for strong winds in the southeastern areas of the country. Meteo France La Reunion has issued an orange alert for strong winds for the southwestern areas of the island.

The last cyclone to strike Madagascar was Ava in January 2018. That storm left 51 people dead.


Bron: https://watchers.news