It may be the little sister to the better-known El Niño, but Met Office researchers think the climate phenomenon La Niña is going to bring us a miserable summer. La Niña is the name give to the unusual cooling of the surface temperatures of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean; El Niño is the opposite - abnormal warming of surface waters. Together they are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Dr Adam Scaife, climate scientist at the Met Office, describes it as a "natural cycle of extremes". El Niño tends to occur every two to seven years, and is often, but not always, followed by La Niña. The Met Office and other weather centres are predicting that La Niña conditions will develop for the first time since 2001.

The Pacific cooling influences atmospheric circulation patterns, causing wetter conditions in some areas, drier conditions in others. It is thought to produce Atlantic hurricanes, flooding in Bangladesh and the subcontinent, while other areas, including large parts of the US, can experience drought. It also has knock-on effects closer to home.

"Forecasts have consistently pointed to a band of low pressure across northern Europe," says Scaife. "We can't say that the rainfall we've seen is down to the La Niña effect. All we can say is there's a signal for the season to be cloudier and wetter than normal."

It is not known how El Niño and La Niña will respond to global warming, though some scientists say the results could be devastating. Scaife stresses that although Britain will have a soggy summer, this is a temporary blip. "Despite the cloudy conditions, temperatures are still above average so far this summer and climate change will bring much hotter summers in the UK. In a few decades, it will be very hard to get wet summers like this." So instead of complaining, we should enjoy it while it lasts.

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