Tropical Storm "Rosa" approaching Baja California, flooding, debris flows and landslides possible over parts of Mexico and western United StatesThe center of Tropical Storm "Rosa" was located about 225 km (140 miles) WSW of Punta Eugenia, and 525 km (325 miles) SSW of San Felipe, Mexico at 09:00 UTC on October 1, 2018. Rosa is expected to produce heavy rain across Baja California and northwestern Sonora, Central and Southern Arizona and the rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies and Great Basin. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected as well as dangerous debris flows and landslides in mountainous regions.
The storm had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) at the time and was moving NW at 19 km/h (12 mph) with minimum central pressure of 994 hPa.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the east coast of Baja California from Bahia de Los Angeles to San Felipe.
On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight (PDT).
Rosa is expected to produce 77 - 153 mm (3 to 6 inches) of rain across Baja California and northwestern Sonora, with isolated 254 mm (10 inches) possible.
Central and Southern Arizona can expect 51 - 102 mm (2 to 4 inches), and isolated totals of 153 mm (6 inches) possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.
The rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies and Great Basin can expect 25 - 77 mm (1 to 2 inches) and isolated totals of 102 mm (4 inches).
These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding, dangerous debris flows and landslides in mountainous regions.
Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Rosa's remnants are expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, October 2, producing heavy rain and bringing flash flood conditions to the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies through Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of excessive rain in portions of Arizona today and tomorrow.
"Heavy rainfall has made a return to much of Arizona and southeastern California as Tropical Storm 'Rosa' tracks towards the northeast, and it is forecast to make landfall on the northern Baja California coast Monday evening," NWS said early October 1.
"There will be enough deep layer moisture to support widespread 25 - 77 mm (1 to 3 inches) rainfall amounts through Tuesday night, with some additional showers and thunderstorms likely falling thereafter. This moisture will continue spreading inland across eastern Nevada, Utah, and western portions of Colorado and New Mexico."
Flash flood watches are currently in effect for many of those areas, and the Weather Prediction Center currently has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for parts of Arizona where the threat of flash flooding is greater.
Likely dangerous flash floods, debris plugs in this area of northern Mexico. Wish I could chase these floods safely after dark but am not familiar with the terrain or road network south of the border #Rosa pic.twitter.com/jXpgBDDohz— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) 2 oktober 2018
Update: Very heavy rain with #Rosa is inching slowly into far southern AZ. Heavy rain will be starting shortly in the Yuma area, especially east, and Ajo shortly. Will be monitoring washes in the area for flash flood potential tonight @breakingweather pic.twitter.com/6rkrJ0lDED— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) 2 oktober 2018
Like my headphones after my kid got ahold of them, today's weather comes to you in 3 parts...— NWS (@NWS) 1 oktober 2018
1) Tropical moisture from #Rosa overspreads the southwest with several inches possible through Wed. creating dangerous flash flooding, debris flows, and landslides.#TurnAroundDontDrown pic.twitter.com/rF0vSQW8dt
Flash flood watches stretch 750 miles from Mexico-Arizona border through Utah. Some locations in Desert Southwest to see up to 4 inches of rain from #Rosa. More info: https://t.co/IlMnHIl0GO pic.twitter.com/U5nnHh3LnN— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) 1 oktober 2018
Update: morning as-live from Flagstaff AZ ahead of heavy rainfall from #TropicalStormRosa. Plan is to drop south to southern AZ to cover flash flood threat. Stay tuned to @accuweather for updates #azwx pic.twitter.com/Iwv9vT6TyF— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) 1 oktober 2018
Wind damage has been reported in Yuma, Arizona ahead of Rosa. Rosa is projected to make landfall on the northern part of Baja California on Monday evening: https://t.co/iHjdSs2nNf https://t.co/j0biZTELox— AccuWeather (@breakingweather) 30 september 2018
STORY: “When I was your age, we didn’t close school for a little rain.”— Matt Rodewald FOX 10 (@Matt_Fox10) 2 oktober 2018
However, one school district might adjust the schedule tomorrow, if there are problems with #TropicalStormRosa #FOX10Phoenix https://t.co/1C9acnNhVv
DAM FAILURE imminent! Evacuations for Ali Chuk, AZ downstream of Menegers Lake with damn failure likely. Lake levels are rising and about to flood out. @breakingweather @accuweather #rosa #azwx pic.twitter.com/8cC5LZLM8Y— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) 3 oktober 2018
JUST SWELL: No ocean, no problem for this Arizona surfer who hit some waves on a heavily flooded Scottsdale street Monday. The National Weather Service had issued flood advisories due to heavy rains in the area. pic.twitter.com/sWvUl89oEX— Fox News (@FoxNews) 3 oktober 2018
VIDEO: Drone footage: Hurricane Rosa floods Indian Bend Wash Greenbelt in Scottsdale pic.twitter.com/salNDepRcx— azcentral (@azcentral) 2 oktober 2018
VIDEO: A timelapse shows the remnants of Hurricane Rosa moving across the Phoenix area. pic.twitter.com/0bXmmSTNMt— azcentral (@azcentral) 3 oktober 2018
The lingering moisture from Hurricane Rosa may not be finished yet with metropolitan Phoenix. https://t.co/QmAC7850lt— azcentral (@azcentral) 3 oktober 2018
JUST IN: 19th Avenue and McDowell in Phoenix is flooded out due to nonstop rain from Tropical Depression Rosa. Please drive safe and take your time this morning! Thanks to CBS 5/3TV viewer Brett Wescott for sharing these pictures. #azfamily #azwx #phoenix #arizona pic.twitter.com/TpCDA7LUDL— Preston Phillips (@PrestonTVNews) 2 oktober 2018