Het KNMI geeft nog geen enkele waarschuwing. Kans is blijkbaar kleiner dan 60%.

Citaat van Tatanka, woensdag 1 juli 2015, 20:53 uur 

KMI eveneens....die komen morgen echt wel op tijd met waarschuwingen mischien later straks nog wel. Ook even de vraag boven beantwoord!! Misschien met de update van 22u?
 

| Gewijzigd: 2 juli 2015, 00:28 uur, door Viktor Peters

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 02 Jul 2015 06:00 to Fri 03 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 01 Jul 2015 22:56
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for NW France and N / central Benelux countries mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts and to a lesser extend tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the southern North Sea, southern Scandinavia, W Germany, central and western France, E Spain, and the Alps mainly for large or very large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for W Turkey mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

An amplified ridge is located across western Europe, flanked by a deep N Atlantic trough and a trough/cut off across E Europe. A strong southerly jet extends from Iberia to the North Sea ahead of a lifting trough that will travel from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea during the period. 

At lower levels, a plume of warm air extends from the west Mediterranean to the North Sea. To the west, a sharp frontal zone will slowly progress east over France and the North Sea. Eastern Europe is affected by a northerly to easterly flow advecting dry and cooler air. Best low-level moisture will be co-located with the axis of warm air where it nicely overlaps with steep lapse rates. Focus of convective development will be a frontal convergence that slowly moves east.

estofex.org

Berichten samengevoegd door justinos | Gewijzigd: 2 juli 2015, 01:09 uur, door Justin

En het Extended forecast voor vrijdag op zaterdag is er inmiddels ook uit.... wordt nog leuk...



Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 03 Jul 2015 06:00 to Sat 04 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 01 Jul 2015 23:10
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 was issued for NW France and W Belgium

This extended forecast is issued to highlight an elevated potential of severe weather over NW France and W Belgium on Friday evening. There is a risk of strong tornadoes and very large hail.

Other areas are not discussed.

DISCUSSION

An eastward progression on Thursday of the warmest lower tropospheric air and the moist convergence zone on its western fringe across the Benelux and France is followed by a westward advection of low-level moisture on Friday. 

This advection in concert with surface pressure falls over the Bay of Biscay in association with the northward advection of extremely warm air over France and an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern North Atlantic ocean. Within the noist air-mass, CAPE may rise over 2000 J/kg per GFS and around 1000 J/kg per ECMWF.

Near a warm frontal zone over the Channel, high amounts of storm-relative helicity (~400 m2/s2) and high low-level shear (10-15 m/s) are forecast. NWP guidance hints that, during a time window in the evening, substantial surface-based CAPE and the strong low-level shear may overlap. 

There is some uncertainty about the question if storms will develop in this region and somewhat dry forecast profile. GFS shows the strongest precipitation signals.

Any storms developing in that shear environment have a high probability of turning into supercells with a risk of very large hail and of (strong) tornadoes. 

Bron: http://www.estofex.org

Zo te lezen bij Estofex wordt het morgenavond bloed serieus.

Citaat van Amras, donderdag 2 juli 2015, 1:09 uur Front was me net voor met de Estofex voor donderdag op vrijdag sorry! jij was met net voor met de extended forecast! allebei n stukkie!